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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Operations Gemba Walk |  Operations A3 Problem Solving |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When there is uncertainty about the real course of a process, the method brings observation to the place where work happens. It combines perception, follow-up questions, and process knowledge so decisions rest on actual workflows instead of assumptions. | For a complex deviation with several people involved, the method bundles problem, analysis, and decision onto one page. It creates a shared working space where causes, countermeasures, and follow-up fit together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 30-120 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 2-6 | 2-5 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Observation Notes, Improvement Ideas | A3 Report, Action Plan, Root Cause Analysis |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ForecastingFlowDelivery | LeanObservationProcessOperations | LeanProblem solvingCoachingOperations |