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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Systems Thinking Leverage Points |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Force Field Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | In change initiatives, supporting and restraining forces sit at the table at the same time. Force Field Analysis makes these tensions explicit and shows where change can be pushed forward by strengthening or relieving. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | Half day | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-12 | 1-8 | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Leverage Map, Action Strategy | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Force Field Map, Change Levers, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | Systems thinkingChangeStrategy | ForecastingFlowDelivery | ChangeDecisionStrategy |