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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Product Strategy Lean Canvas |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When an early product bet still has too many open points, it brings target group, problem, and assumptions into a single view. It condenses the idea so core risks become nameable. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 45-90 min | 1-3 h | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-6 | 4-10 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Lean Canvas, Core Assumptions, Experiment Backlog | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | StartupLeanAssumptionsBusiness model | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | ForecastingFlowDelivery |