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Criterion
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Paper illustration for Kaizen Event.
Operations
Kaizen Event
Value Stream Mapping workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Delivery
Value Stream Mapping
Paper illustration for Monte Carlo Forecasting.
Delivery
Monte Carlo Forecasting
Purposedifferent
A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.For a tightly scoped process segment with noticeable waste, the method bundles shared energy for change. It suits situations that call for fast learning loops and visible adjustments.When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible.Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumMediumHigh
Timedifferent
10-30 min je Item0.5-5 Tage1-3 h30-90 min Setup, danach laufend
Participantsdifferent
1-84-104-101-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesKaizen Charter, Waste List, Improvement Experiments, Standard Work UpdateCurrent-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck listForecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
LeanContinuous improvementOperations
LeanFlowWasteDelivery
ForecastingFlowDelivery
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