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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  DevOps Game Day |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Engineering Failure Scenario Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | In preparing for rare incidents, the method tests response capability under controlled conditions. It shows where assumptions about stability, roles, and recovery are too optimistic. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | Halber Tag | 15-45 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 5-20 | 1-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Simulation Notes, Gaps List, Updated Runbooks | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response Actions |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ResilienceOperationsIncident | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | FailureResilienceRisk |