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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Engineering Kanban |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When work sits in too many parallel streams, throughput suffers and no one sees the bottlenecks. Kanban makes the flow of work visible and limits overload so a system becomes calmer and more predictable. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 2-4 h | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | Ongoing |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 1-8 | 2-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Kanban board, WIP policies, Flow metrics |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | ForecastingFlowDelivery | FlowVisual managementDelivery |