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Criterion
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Paper fishbone diagram with a measurable effect at the head and six labeled cause branches.
Operations
Fishbone Diagram
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
Operations
Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
Purposedifferent
A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.When a problem has several possible contributing factors, the method sorts causes by cause areas. It prevents an initial hunch from blocking the view of other plausible drivers.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.For a process, product, or service with noticeable failure risks, the method assesses possible failure modes in advance. It directs attention to combinations of occurrence, effect, and detectability.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowHighHigh
Timedifferent
10-30 min je Item30-60 min1-4 Wochen2-6 h
Participantsdifferent
1-82-86-30 Experten3-10
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopAsyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesFishbone Diagram, Cause Categories, Investigation BacklogExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesFMEA Table, Risk Priority, Mitigation Actions
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
Root causeQualityOperations
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
RiskQualityOperationsRoot cause
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