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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 5-20 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-20 | 2-6 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationEffortRisk | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery |