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Criterion
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration for Causal Factor Analysis.
Operations
Causal Factor Analysis
Paper illustration for Current Reality Tree
Systems Thinking
Current Reality Tree
Purposedifferent
A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events.A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowHighHigh
Timedifferent
10-30 min je Item5-20 min2-6 h2-6 h
Participantsdifferent
1-83-203-103-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesEffort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsEvent Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective ActionsCurrent Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
EstimationEffortRisk
CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline
Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality
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