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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Business Strategy Business Model Stress Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | A Business Model Stress Test checks how well a business model holds up under pressure and headwinds. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a stress-test report and action plan per scenario. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 1-4 Wochen | 5-20 min | Half day |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | 3-20 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Stress Test Report, Action Plan per Scenario |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationEffortRisk | StrategyBusiness modelRiskDiagnosis |