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Criterion
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Paper illustration of the Lightning Decision Jam working structure.
Facilitation
Decision Jam
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Purposedifferent
A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.When a decision is stuck, Decision Jam loosens the knot through structured separation of problem, idea, and selection. The format creates movement without jumping prematurely at the first seemingly elegant answer.When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowLowHigh
Timedifferent
10-30 min je Item60-90 min5-20 min1-4 Wochen
Participantsdifferent
1-84-103-206-30 Experten
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshopAsync
Outputdifferent
Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesProblem Cluster, Prioritized Challenge, ExperimentEffort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
FacilitationDecisionProblem solvingWorkshop
EstimationEffortRisk
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
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