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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Systems Thinking Theory of Change |  Product Strategy GIST Planning |  Product Strategy Counter Metrics |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | Theory of Change translates a desired impact into a traceable chain of change. It makes assumptions, intermediate goals, and measurement points visible before a program is rolled out at scale. | GIST Planning helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities. It links customer value, product logic, and decision priorities, and captures the result as goals, an idea bank, and a step-project list. | When a headline metric could mask side effects, it adds guardrail signals against unwanted outcomes. It connects customer value, product logic, and decision priorities. The result is captured as a counter-metric list and guardrail definitions. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 2-6 h | Wochen bis Monate je Goal | 30-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 4-12 | 3-10 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Theory of Change Map, Assumptions, Outcome Measures | Goals, Idea bank, Step-project list, Tasks, Learning reports | Counter Metric List, Guardrail Definitions |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | ImpactOutcomesSystems thinkingStrategy | RoadmapOutcomesPlanningExperiments | MetricsMeasurementStrategyExperiments |