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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 15-45 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 5-20 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 1-8 | 4-12 Experten | 3-20 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationExpertsForecasting | EstimationEffortRisk |