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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Agile NoEstimates |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Business Strategy GAP Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | GAP Analysis compares the current state with a target picture and makes the distance manageable. It becomes useful when, ahead of new initiatives, it must become clear which capabilities, processes, or resources are missing. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | laufend | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 2-12 | 1-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Gap Matrix, Action Plan, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | EstimationForecastingFlow | ForecastingFlowDelivery | StrategyAnalysisPlanning |