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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Business Strategy GAP Analysis |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | GAP Analysis compares the current state with a target picture and makes the distance manageable. It becomes useful when, ahead of new initiatives, it must become clear which capabilities, processes, or resources are missing. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 1-3 h | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 2-8 | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Gap Matrix, Action Plan, Risk Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | StrategyAnalysisPlanning | ForecastingFlowDelivery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |