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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 5-20 min | 20–45 min | 15-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 3-20 | Small cross-functional group | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | EstimationEffortRisk | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | EstimationUncertaintyRisk |