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Criterion
Scenario Planning method illustration showing its working structure
Business Strategy
Scenario Planning
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration for Constraint Analysis.
Decision Making
Constraint Analysis
Purposedifferent
Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path.When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.When an initiative stalls, the limit often lies not in the idea but in hard or soft boundary conditions. Constraint Analysis separates these limits and shows which of them can actually be shaped.
Complexitydifferent
HighLowLowLow
Timedifferent
0.5-2 Tage5-20 min20–45 min30-90 min
Participantsdifferent
4-123-20Small cross-functional group2-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust OptionsEffort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logConstraint List, Hard/Soft Classification, Option Impact Notes, Decision Boundaries
Tagsno overlap
StrategyUncertaintyPlanning
EstimationEffortRisk
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
ConstraintsDecisionPlanningOptions
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