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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 5-20 min | 1-4 Wochen | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 3-20 | 6-30 Experten | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | EstimationEffortRisk | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |