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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 10-30 min je Item | 5-20 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 1-8 | 3-20 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationEffortRisk | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |