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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Systems Thinking System Dynamics Simulation |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Systems Thinking Stock and Flow Diagram |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | System Dynamics Simulation makes assumptions about time, delay, and feedback testable through experiments. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a simulation model and scenario reports. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | A Stock and Flow Diagram shows how stocks, inflows, and outflows shape a system over time. It is especially suited when growth, delays, or capacity limits determine the dynamics. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | Mehrere Tage bis Wochen | 45-60 min | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 1-5 Modellierende, Stakeholder asynchron | 2-8 | 1-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Simulation Model, Scenario Reports | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Stock and Flow Model, Dynamics Notes, Simulation Hypotheses |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | Systems thinkingDynamicsSimulationAnalysis | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | DynamicsSimulationFeedbackSystems thinking |