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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Systems Thinking Iceberg Model |  Systems Thinking Behavior Over Time Graph |  Systems Thinking Causal Loop Diagram |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | The Iceberg Model separates visible events from patterns, structures, and mental models. This turns a single observation into a deeper understanding of why a problem keeps recurring. | A Behavior Over Time Graph shows how a metric or observation develops over time. The method makes trends, breaks, and recurring patterns visible that get lost in snapshots. | A Causal Loop Diagram makes feedback, reinforcement, and balance in a system legible. It uncovers side effects and self-reinforcement that stay hidden in linear explanations. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 30-60 min | 20-45 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 2-10 | 1-10 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Iceberg Worksheet, Pattern Notes, Intervention Ideas | Behavior Over Time Graph, Trend Hypotheses, Key Events | Causal Loop Diagram, Feedback Notes, Leverage Points |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | Systems thinkingRoot causePatterns | Systems thinkingPatternsDynamics | FeedbackSystems thinkingCausalityDynamics |