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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Engineering Failure Scenario Analysis |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 2-4 h | 1-3 h | 60-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 3-8 | 3-8 | 2-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response Actions | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | FailureResilienceRisk | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking |