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Criterion
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration for Flywheel.
Growth
Flywheel
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Failure Scenario Analysis.
Engineering
Failure Scenario Analysis
Purposedifferent
In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.Growth often breaks down where a reinforcing mechanism builds up too much friction. A Flywheel shows the cycle of value, repetition, and reinforcement meant to sustain growth.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumLowMedium
Timedifferent
20–45 min60-120 min45-90 min1-3 h
Participantsdifferent
Small cross-functional group3-82-83-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logFlywheel Map, Friction Points, Growth Levers, Experiment BacklogAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanFailure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response Actions
Tagsno overlap
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
GrowthRetentionConversion
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
FailureResilienceRisk
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