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Criterion
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper fishbone diagram with a measurable effect at the head and six labeled cause branches.
Operations
Fishbone Diagram
Paper illustration for ALPEN Method
Operations
ALPEN Method
Paper illustration for Kepner-Tregoe
Operations
Kepner-Tregoe
Purposedifferent
In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.When a problem has several possible contributing factors, the method sorts causes by cause areas. It prevents an initial hunch from blocking the view of other plausible drivers.With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time.For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowLowHigh
Timedifferent
20–45 min30-60 min10-20 min daily2-8 h
Participantsdifferent
Small cross-functional group2-812-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logFishbone Diagram, Cause Categories, Investigation BacklogDaily Plan, Time Estimates, Review NotesProblem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan
Tagsno overlap
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
Root causeQualityOperations
PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations
Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations
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