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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Engineering Failure Scenario Analysis |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Red Teaming |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | For strategic decisions with high reach, agreement and gut feeling are often not enough. Red teaming brings deliberate opposition into the situation and tests where a plan breaks under real counterarguments. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 1-3 h | 15-45 min | 1-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 3-8 | 1-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response Actions | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Challenge Findings, Risk Register, Mitigation Plan |
Tags1 shared | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | FailureResilienceRisk | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | RiskDecisionSensemaking |