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Criterion
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration for Failure Scenario Analysis.
Engineering
Failure Scenario Analysis
Design Thinking as a learning loop: an observation notebook, a focused problem statement, different idea sketches, a cardboard prototype and user-test notes. Feedback leads to new understanding.
Innovation
Design Thinking
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage.For complex user problems with an uncertain cause, the method connects observation, interpretation, and experiment into a learning cycle. It keeps the focus on real needs and avoids premature solution language. This produces robust decisions for product and service.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumHighLow
Timedifferent
20–45 min1-3 h1 Tag bis mehrere Wochen45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
Small cross-functional group3-84-102-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logFailure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response ActionsProblem Statement, Prototype, Test LearningsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
FailureResilienceRisk
InnovationPrototypeResearch
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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