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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Low | High | High |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 5-20 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 3-20 | 4-12 Experten | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | EstimationEffortRisk | EstimationExpertsForecasting | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |