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Criterion
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Decision Tree method illustration showing its working structure
Decision Making
Decision Tree
Paper illustration for Ideal Days.
Agile
Ideal Days
Paper illustration for Failure Scenario Analysis.
Engineering
Failure Scenario Analysis
Purposedifferent
In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch.When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats.In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumLowMedium
Timedifferent
20–45 min30-90 min15-60 min1-3 h
Participantsdifferent
Small cross-functional group1-62-93-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logDecision Tree, Option Map, Assumption ListIdeal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity CaveatsFailure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response Actions
Tagsno overlap
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
DecisionTreeOptions
EstimationEffortAgile
FailureResilienceRisk
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