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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Systems Thinking Causal Loop Diagram |  Systems Thinking Behavior Over Time Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | A Causal Loop Diagram makes feedback, reinforcement, and balance in a system legible. It uncovers side effects and self-reinforcement that stay hidden in linear explanations. | A Behavior Over Time Graph shows how a metric or observation develops over time. The method makes trends, breaks, and recurring patterns visible that get lost in snapshots. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Low | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 45-90 min | 1-3 h | 20-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 2-8 | 2-8 | 1-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Causal Loop Diagram, Feedback Notes, Leverage Points | Behavior Over Time Graph, Trend Hypotheses, Key Events |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | FeedbackSystems thinkingCausalityDynamics | Systems thinkingPatternsDynamics |