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Criterion
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration for ALPEN Method
Operations
ALPEN Method
Paper fishbone diagram with a measurable effect at the head and six labeled cause branches.
Operations
Fishbone Diagram
Paper illustration for Kepner-Tregoe
Operations
Kepner-Tregoe
Purposedifferent
In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time.When a problem has several possible contributing factors, the method sorts causes by cause areas. It prevents an initial hunch from blocking the view of other plausible drivers.For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowLowHigh
Timedifferent
20–45 min10-20 min daily30-60 min2-8 h
Participantsdifferent
Small cross-functional group12-82-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopAsyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logDaily Plan, Time Estimates, Review NotesFishbone Diagram, Cause Categories, Investigation BacklogProblem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan
Tagsno overlap
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations
Root causeQualityOperations
Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations
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