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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Agile NoEstimates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-3 h | 5-20 min | laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-10 | 3-20 | 2-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | EstimationEffortRisk | EstimationForecastingFlow |