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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Agile ROAM Board |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When work needs to move between different states or columns, it makes that movement and its handoffs legible. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a ROAM Board and an Owner List. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 10-30 min je Item | 20-40 min initial, dann laufend | 5-20 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 3-15 | 3-20 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | ROAM Board, Owner List | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | RiskAgileTrackingAlignment | EstimationEffortRisk |