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Criterion
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Paper illustration of Hooked Model with its method-specific working model.
Growth
Hooked Model
A paper-based illustration representing North Star Metric with its core stages and visible working result.
Growth
North Star Metric
Purposedifferent
On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.The Hooked Model helps clarify engagement loops, user behavior, and experiments. It makes repeat behavior measurable and captures the result as a hooked loop, trigger map, and reward design.When product teams track many metrics, the view of the actual customer outcome easily gets lost. A North Star Metric bundles growth, usage, and value contribution into one signal that makes the system's direction visible.
Complexitysame
MediumMediumMediumMedium
Timedifferent
15-45 min10-30 min je ItemMultiple workshops over several weeks1-2 h
Participantsdifferent
1-81-82-83-8
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk NotesThree-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesHooked loop, Trigger map, Reward design, Ethics checkNorth Star metric, Input metric tree, Measurement cadence
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
GrowthBehaviorRetention
GrowthMetricsAlignmentRetention
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