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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Agile ROAM Board |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Product Discovery Dual-Track Agile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When work needs to move between different states or columns, it makes that movement and its handoffs legible. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a ROAM Board and an Owner List. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When uncertainty and delivery run in parallel, it separates learning work from implementation while keeping both connected. It prevents unvalidated ideas from falling directly into the delivery stream. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 20-40 min initial, dann laufend | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | Laufend, Wochen bis Monate |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-15 | 1-8 | 4-10 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | ROAM Board, Owner List | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Discovery Backlog, Delivery Backlog, Experiment-Ergebnisse, Validierte Stories |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | RiskAgileTrackingAlignment | ForecastingFlowDelivery | AgileDiscoveryDelivery |