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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Agile ROAM Board |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When work needs to move between different states or columns, it makes that movement and its handoffs legible. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a ROAM Board and an Owner List. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 20-40 min initial, dann laufend | 45-60 min | 5-20 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-15 | 2-8 | 3-20 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | ROAM Board, Owner List | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets |
Tags1 shared | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | RiskAgileTrackingAlignment | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | EstimationEffortRisk |