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Criterion
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Process Mapping method illustration showing its working structure
Operations
Process Mapping
Gemba Walk workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Operations
Gemba Walk
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Purposedifferent
On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.With a confusing workflow that has many handoffs, the method makes the actual process visible. It shows where work is passed on, delayed, or duplicated, so improvement targets the right spots.When there is uncertainty about the real course of a process, the method brings observation to the place where work happens. It combines perception, follow-up questions, and process knowledge so decisions rest on actual workflows instead of assumptions.When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumLowLow
Timedifferent
15-45 min1-3 h30-120 min5-20 min
Participantsdifferent
1-83-102-63-20
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshopWorkshop
Outputdifferent
PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk NotesProcess Map, Handoff List, Improvement BacklogObservation Notes, Improvement IdeasEffort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
ProcessOperationsImprovement
LeanObservationProcessOperations
EstimationEffortRisk
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