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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Agile Ideal Days |  Engineering Failure Scenario Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats. | In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 20–45 min | 15-60 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | Small cross-functional group | 2-9 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity Caveats | Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response Actions |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | EstimationEffortAgile | FailureResilienceRisk |