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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Decision Tree |  Engineering Failure Scenario Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch. | In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 20–45 min | 30-90 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | Small cross-functional group | 1-6 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Decision Tree, Option Map, Assumption List | Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response Actions |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | DecisionTreeOptions | FailureResilienceRisk |