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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Agile NoEstimates |  Agile Story Points |  Operations Bottleneck Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | When teams want to rate complexity rather than hours, it creates a shared, relative scale. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Point Estimates, Reference Stories, and Velocity Data. | For a flow that backs up at one point, the method looks for the capacity limit with the greatest leverage. It explains why extra effort elsewhere barely improves throughput. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | laufend | laufend, 1-5 min je Item | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-12 | 3-9 | 3-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Point Estimates, Reference Stories, Velocity Data | Bottleneck Map, Flow Metrics, Improvement Options, Follow-up Measures |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationForecastingFlow | EstimationAgileMeasurement | FlowMeasurementConstraints |