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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Agile NoEstimates |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | laufend | 5-20 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-12 | 3-20 | 4-12 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes |
Tags1 shared | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationForecastingFlow | EstimationEffortRisk | EstimationExpertsForecasting |