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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 10-30 min je Item | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 1-8 | 4-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | LeanFlowWasteDelivery |