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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Agile Ideal Days |  Agile NoEstimates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 15-60 min | laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 2-9 | 2-12 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity Caveats | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationEffortAgile | EstimationForecastingFlow |