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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Agile Ideal Days |  Product Discovery Dual-Track Agile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats. | When uncertainty and delivery run in parallel, it separates learning work from implementation while keeping both connected. It prevents unvalidated ideas from falling directly into the delivery stream. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 15-60 min | Laufend, Wochen bis Monate |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 2-9 | 4-10 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity Caveats | Discovery Backlog, Delivery Backlog, Experiment-Ergebnisse, Validierte Stories |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationEffortAgile | AgileDiscoveryDelivery |