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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Innovation Lean Startup |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Agile Ideal Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus | 5-20 min | 15-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 3-20 | 2-9 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity Caveats |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | LeanStartupValidationMVP | EstimationEffortRisk | EstimationEffortAgile |