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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Product Strategy Impact Mapping |  Product Strategy Counter Metrics |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When a goal needs to be connected to several possible paths, it shows chains of impact instead of feature lists. It connects business goal, behavior change, and measures. | When a headline metric could mask side effects, it adds guardrail signals against unwanted outcomes. It connects customer value, product logic, and decision priorities. The result is captured as a counter-metric list and guardrail definitions. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 45-90 min | 30-60 min | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 2-6 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Impact Map, Outcome Hypotheses, Delivery Options | Counter Metric List, Guardrail Definitions | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | OutcomesStrategyBehaviorPlanning | MetricsMeasurementStrategyExperiments | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |