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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Agile Ideal Days |  Engineering Failure Scenario Analysis |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats. | In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 15-60 min | 1-3 h | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-9 | 3-8 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity Caveats | Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response Actions | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationEffortAgile | FailureResilienceRisk | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |