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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Agile Ideal Days |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 15-60 min | 1-4 Wochen | 5-20 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-9 | 6-30 Experten | 3-20 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity Caveats | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationEffortAgile | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationEffortRisk |