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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Growth Hooked Model |  Agile NoEstimates |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | The Hooked Model helps clarify engagement loops, user behavior, and experiments. It makes repeat behavior measurable and captures the result as a hooked loop, trigger map, and reward design. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | Multiple workshops over several weeks | laufend | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 2-12 | 1-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Hooked loop, Trigger map, Reward design, Ethics check | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | GrowthBehaviorRetention | EstimationForecastingFlow | ForecastingFlowDelivery |