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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Growth Hooked Model |  Agile NoEstimates |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | The Hooked Model helps clarify engagement loops, user behavior, and experiments. It makes repeat behavior measurable and captures the result as a hooked loop, trigger map, and reward design. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | Multiple workshops over several weeks | laufend | 5-20 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 2-12 | 3-20 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Hooked loop, Trigger map, Reward design, Ethics check | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | GrowthBehaviorRetention | EstimationForecastingFlow | EstimationEffortRisk |