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Criterion
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Gemba Walk workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Operations
Gemba Walk
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration for Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
Operations
Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
Purposedifferent
On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.When there is uncertainty about the real course of a process, the method brings observation to the place where work happens. It combines perception, follow-up questions, and process knowledge so decisions rest on actual workflows instead of assumptions.When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.For a process, product, or service with noticeable failure risks, the method assesses possible failure modes in advance. It directs attention to combinations of occurrence, effect, and detectability.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowLowHigh
Timedifferent
15-45 min30-120 min5-20 min2-6 h
Participantsdifferent
1-82-63-203-10
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshopWorkshop
Outputdifferent
PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk NotesObservation Notes, Improvement IdeasEffort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsFMEA Table, Risk Priority, Mitigation Actions
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
LeanObservationProcessOperations
EstimationEffortRisk
RiskQualityOperationsRoot cause
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